Wow … so what you're saying there's actually a fight to dissect?
Yes indeed, though it's been discussed, rumored and openly fantasized about for what feels like much longer than six years, the time has finally arrived to assess the plusses and minuses that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao figure to bring to the MGM Grand ring Saturday night.
Though their respective ages -- Mayweather turned 38 in February, Pacquiao has been 36 since December -- suggest far greater proximity to retirements than peaks, both men remain fixtures at the premier ends of the most highly regarded talent assessments. In fact, The Ring slots Mayweather No. 1 and Pacquiao No. 3 in pound-for-pound ratings on its website, and the Independent World Boxing Rankings have them at first and second, respectively, in this month's rundown for the 147-pound class.
In other words, the fight remains relevant not only for the star power the fighters possess, but just as much for the world-class acumen they've carried into their twilight years.
And now that the opening bell is near, the discussion can at last turn from supposition to strategy.
A case for Pacquiao
The Filipino superstar toiled in anonymity for a while after turning pro in 1995 at age 16, but began building the "PacMan" brand after arriving on short notice to erase Lehlo Ledwaba in a 122-pound title bout six years later. He claimed trophy-sized heads across the lower weights through a June 2008 demolition of 135-pound space-filler David Diaz, then went global with a vicious battering of Oscar De La Hoya that necessitated the "Golden Boy's" surrender in an MGM Grand showcase that December.
The Pacquiao that earned raves and collected title belts all the way through a late 2009 pummeling of a catch-weighted Miguel Cotto possessed irrepressibly fast hands, agile feet and enough pop in his left to either render a foe loopy with one shot -- paging Ricky Hatton, circa May 2009 -- or to make it impossible for said foe to keep him still long enough to deliver an impactful reply of their own.
His success against Mayweather, though, will depend on how much of that dynamo still exists.
Yes, Pacquiao has won eight of nine outings since dethroning Cotto, but he hasn't stopped a single man since Cotto, had middling tactical frustration across two fights with Timothy Bradley and was knocked face-first to the floor in a fourth go-round with Juan Manuel Marquez.
It seems clear that the Pacquiao who faces Mayweather will need to be a lot more of the 2008-09 vintage than what he's shown lately. In fact, if he hasn't got the strength to land a single paradigm-altering shot (a la Hatton), or the juice to stand on the gas for multiple rounds and sap his foil's willingness to compete (a la De La Hoya), it'll be a sad night in Manila. But the man is fast. And powerful. And even on the backside of his prime, he's still perhaps the stiffest competition Mayweather has ever faced. If PacMan can ride the energy of the night and land a few meaningful blows in the early going, there's no doubt he still packs enough punch to finally strip Mayweather of that zero next to his name.
A case for Mayweather
Some love him, many hate him. But few objective observers will argue that Mayweather isn't the best fighter in the sport today. He is. And it's largely for the very same reasons he ascended to that position years ago.
Even well into his 30s and armed with a financial arsenal most governments would covet, he still prepares for each match like a hungry 20-something seeking a first big break. And because he's managed to get through 47 fights with few prolonged violent skirmishes, neither his reservoir of ring intelligence nor his myriad physical abilities seem to have diminished much with advanced age.
He still stands well within punching range, yet his rough-and-tumble opponents are unable to either find him with single paralyzing shots or disassemble his defensive matrix, even from in close.
In Pacquiao, though, he faces the potential for a threat unlike any in recent memory.
Though 2014 dance partner Marcos Maidana was as determined and physical as they come, neither his fundamentals nor his athletic prowess come close to what the Filipino has possessed. And though Canelo Alvarez was younger, bigger and stronger in 2013 than Pacquiao, his toolbox was also nowhere near as advanced as what PacMan, even at 35, showed as recently as November.
Same goes for Victor Ortiz, Cotto and Robert Guerrero, whom Mayweather beat in succession from 2011 to 2013 thanks largely to the same edges he had over Alvarez and Maidana. In fact, one has to go all the way back to Shane Mosley -- who had Mayweather in more trouble he's been in at any point in five years and 74 rounds since -- to find a Floyd foe who presents an all-around challenge of speed, power and ring smarts like Pacquiao's.
But here's the thing: everyone says they are going to make Floyd Mayweather fight for full rounds. They say that, and then they can't do it. As lauded as Mayweather's defensive wizardry is, in reality it's even more impressive. Guys can't touch him. Through the prime years of his career opponents landed punches at less than a 20 percent clip while Mayweather connected at close to 50 percent.
He might not be quite the fighter he used to be, but he's still the best in the world. It will take something special to knock him off that throne.
